The 2024 Presidential Election, III (2024)

NationalTitles18 said:

Allan Lichtman, creator of 13 Keys to the White House, accurately predicts presidential elections. In this video, he goes through his prediction model and explains if he think Joe Biden or Donald Trump is likely to win.

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Really interesting video. The foreign policy is certainly false. He’s kidding himself on that one. The economy one is so interesting. He has a very narrow definition of true or false with the economy. I understand why, but the American people feel bad about the economy like it’s in recession. I get it’s not technically, but the price issues and inflation are dictating their feelings. I will definitely keep an eye out for his final prediction and see how it compares to the outcome. Thanks for sharing. It was well worth a watch.

Bamaro said:

BOTH canidates are past their 'use by date'! If they were a jar of mayonaise they would already have been thrown out. However, only one has instigated an insurrection. Like it or not, the choice is obvious.

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But we need to vote for Trump because Chuck Schumer doesn’t know how to cook a hamburger.

AWRTR said:

Really interesting video. The foreign policy is certainly false. He’s kidding himself on that one. The economy one is so interesting. He has a very narrow definition of true or false with the economy. I understand why, but the American people feel bad about the economy like it’s in recession. I get it’s not technically, but the price issues and inflation are dictating their feelings. I will definitely keep an eye out for his final prediction and see how it compares to the outcome. Thanks for sharing. It was well worth a watch.

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He has both "No foreign/military failure" and "major foreign/military success" as likely false, meaning a strike against Biden; so I'm not sure why you take umbrage with that unless you are saying they are certainties, which is picking nits since he is already pretty much counting both categories as going against Biden. He seems to be hedging bets there because it is feasible something could turn around quickly this summer, though even he thinks it is unlikely.

He doesn't go by public sentiment on the economy. He uses standard measures. I believe he says in the video that a certain respected group has to declare a recession for it to go negative for the incumbent (or something like that).

These were the key indicators that went against Trump in 2020:

• Key 1, Mandate Key, because of Republican losses in the midterm elections of 2018.
• Key 5, Short-Term Economic Key, because of an election-year recession.
• Key 6, Long-Term Economic Key, because of the sharply negative growth this year.
• Key 8, Social Unrest, because what is raging across the land.
• Key 9, Scandal, Trump is only the third American president to be impeached by the full US House of Representatives.
• Key 11, Foreign/Military Success, because of the lack of an acclaimed success abroad.
• Key 12, Incumbent Charisma, because Trump appeals only to a narrow base.

source: https://www.american.edu/cas/news/13-keys-election-prediction.cfm

6 indicators have to go against the incumbent for them to be predicted to lose in his system. Trump had 7 false indicators (against him). By his system Biden is in good shape for reelection, though that could change. If that ends up being the final prediction then time will tell if it is correct.

Crimson1967 said:

But we need to vote for Trump because Chuck Schumer doesn’t know how to cook a hamburger.

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Maybe he just likes warm steak tartare with melted cheese.

Crimson1967 said:

But we need to vote for Trump because Chuck Schumer doesn’t know how to cook a hamburger.

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Everybody knows these filthy commies know nothing about outdoor grilling.

Bogus Biden "dementia" videos going viral DAILY, fact checkers CAN'T KEEP UP

-- Bogus videos of President Biden's supposed "dementia" are going viral so quickly, fact-checkers are struggling to keep up

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The NYP is very purposeful in their lies, as are other republicans participating in this farce.

NationalTitles18 said:

Bogus Biden "dementia" videos going viral DAILY, fact checkers CAN'T KEEP UP

The NYP is very purposeful in their lies, as are other republicans participating in this farce.

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My favorite part of all this is that people think he’s ok. He’s clearly in decline. I know it’s not a part of the narrative being spewed from the Democrat puke funnel, but to anyone with eyes and ears it’s obvious. The spin is strong with the Biden camp.

AWRTR said:

My favorite part of all this is that people think he’s ok. He’s clearly in decline. I know it’s not a part of the narrative being spewed from the Democrat puke funnel, but to anyone with eyes and ears it’s obvious. The spin is strong with the Biden camp.

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So your answer to false stories is to just stick to the narrative?

Are both showing their age?

Yes.

If we're being honest only one appears to have more wrong than just four years having passed since the last election cycle, and his name is Trump.

NationalTitles18 said:

So your answer to false stories is to just stick to the narrative?

Are both showing their age?

Yes.

If we're being honest only one appears to have more wrong than just four years having passed since the last election cycle, and his name is Trump.

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They aren’t false narratives. I’m not saying Trump isn’t aging as well. I’m good with that view and agree with it. I’m just stunned that so many refuse to see what is really happening with Biden. So many are telling me not to believe my lying eyes and ears. All you need to do is go back to 2020 or 2016 and watch videos of Biden the decline is obvious and pretty stark. It will happen to pretty much all of us if we live long enough. There are a few that maintain well into their 90’s. I know several people that are still very sharp in their mid 90’s but most people decline and some pretty drastically. Biden is in that category. I know you will never see it or admit it. That’s cool, you do you, but reality is reality.

AWRTR said:

They aren’t false narratives. I’m not saying Trump isn’t aging as well. I’m good with that view and agree with it. I’m just stunned that so many refuse to see what is really happening with Biden. So many are telling me not to believe my lying eyes and ears. All you need to do is go back to 2020 or 2016 and watch videos of Biden the decline is obvious and pretty stark. It will happen to pretty much all of us if we live long enough. There are a few that maintain well into their 90’s. I know several people that are still very sharp in their mid 90’s but most people decline and some pretty drastically. Biden is in that category. I know you will never see it or admit it. That’s cool, you do you, but reality is reality.

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So you believe videos that were obviously doctored to show something that isn't true at all, making the stories part of a false narrative.

OK.

I can't logic you out of a position logic didn't get you into.

The Campaign Legal Center filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission after the 2020 election cycle alleging that Trump’s campaign ran more than $500 million through a firm called American Made Media Consultants, which it argued appeared to be a shell company designed to obscure exactly whom the campaign was paying.

The FEC deadlocked, and the complaint was dismissed.

In April, the Campaign Legal Center also filed an FEC complaint alleging a network of Trump-aligned organizations was working with a Republican compliance firm called Red Curve Solutions to “obscure the true recipients of a noteworthy potion of Trump’s legal bills.”

The Campaign Legal Center says pushing for campaign spending transparency is an important part of the federal campaign process.

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So for the record, i would prefer a punch in the nose over a kick in the crotch...

I have said it before Biden could be a dead mannequin and I would still vote for him over Trump.

Its mystifying to me that so many on here are comparing the candidates as men to vote for. We literally are voting whether we want the kind of freedom we have enjoyed for the last 100 years or social structure we literally have no experience with as a nation.

I am voting for tomorrow to resemble yesterday and the day before that. That is something I can manage for my family. But I have to wake up tomorrow and be concerned about my or family's privacy, security, welfare, health access, or financial stability then that will be a problem to manage the experience.

CrimsonJazz said:

It's not a bug, it's a feature. Every four years, we're asked to choose between a kick in the crotch or a punch to the nose and every four years, people point to this as an example of how the system is broken. I'm beginning to think that this is just proof that the system is working exactly as intended.

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AWRTR said:

They aren’t false narratives. I’m not saying Trump isn’t aging as well. I’m good with that view and agree with it. I’m just stunned that so many refuse to see what is really happening with Biden. So many are telling me not to believe my lying eyes and ears. All you need to do is go back to 2020 or 2016 and watch videos of Biden the decline is obvious and pretty stark. It will happen to pretty much all of us if we live long enough. There are a few that maintain well into their 90’s. I know several people that are still very sharp in their mid 90’s but most people decline and some pretty drastically. Biden is in that category. I know you will never see it or admit it. That’s cool, you do you, but reality is reality.

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Both have aged, but Trump has far more. Biden's personality is unfortunate because it amplifies the appearance of his. Trump covers a lot with simple bombast. I've had a lot of experience gauging it. I'll be 85 in a few months. They're just kids...

NationalTitles18 said:

So you believe videos that were obviously doctored to show something that isn't true at all, making the stories part of a false narrative.

OK.

I can't logic you out of a position logic didn't get you into.

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I’m basing my thoughts on four years of interviews press conferences and videos. Logic and common sense have gotten me to this spot. Im just stunned anyone would argue he’s fine. You want to argue Trump’s worse. Ok I’m here for that and you may be right, but to say Biden is all good I can’t fathom it if you are intellectually honest and take a real look without far left ideology being you’re guiding principle. Have a great night!

AWRTR said:

I’m basing my thoughts on four years of interviews press conferences and videos. Logic and common sense have gotten me to this spot. Im just stunned anyone would argue he’s fine. You want to argue Trump’s worse. Ok I’m here for that and you may be right, but to say Biden is all good I can’t fathom it if you are intellectually honest and take a real look without far left ideology being you’re guiding principle. Have a great night!

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If he's that bad then why are they making deceitful videos to falsely present their "evidence"?

You have certainly seen the mark of four additional years on an old man with Biden, as I noted above.

Ideology has nothing to do with my assessment of the mental status of the two men.

But of course Trump's ideology is Trump good, opposition of any kind bad. It is also that he will do anything to anyone that stands in his way and to hell with the rule of law and the Constitution and especially anyone who opposes him. He was mentally unhinged to begin with and has only gotten worse. He also shows real signs of incongruent thought.

CrimsonJazz said:

Everybody knows these filthy commies know nothing about outdoor grilling.

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NationalTitles18 said:

If he's that bad then why are they making deceitful videos to falsely present their "evidence"?

You have certainly seen the mark of four additional years on an old man with Biden, as I noted above.

Ideology has nothing to do with my assessment of the mental status of the two men.

But of course Trump's ideology is Trump good, opposition of any kind bad. It is also that he will do anything to anyone that stands in his way and to hell with the rule of law and the Constitution and especially anyone who opposes him. He was mentally unhinged to begin with and has only gotten worse. He also shows real signs of incongruent thought.

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it's a cult

AWRTR said:

I’m basing my thoughts on four years of interviews press conferences and videos. Logic and common sense have gotten me to this spot. Im just stunned anyone would argue he’s fine. You want to argue Trump’s worse. Ok I’m here for that and you may be right, but to say Biden is all good I can’t fathom it if you are intellectually honest and take a real look without far left ideology being you’re guiding principle. Have a great night!

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Speaking of being intellectually dishonest...

Who here has argued that Biden is "all good"?

jthomas666 said:

Speaking of being intellectually dishonest...

Who here has argued that Biden is "all good"?

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little green men and pink elephants?